Working Papers
The Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Tariffs, with Louphou Coulibaly, [Slides] Latest draft: August 2025.
Non-technical summary Twitter thread
Media: Reuters Central Banking Financial Times
Bank Runs, Fragility, and Regulation , with Manuel Amador. Latest draft: August 2025 [Slides] [Policy highlights]
How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Inflation? with Alisdair McKay and Neil Mehrotra, December 2024 [Slides]
Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises, with Mauricio Barbosa-Alves and Cesar Sosa-Padilla, May 2024
Revise and Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics [Non-technical summary] [Slides]
Liquidity Traps, Prudential Policies and International Spillovers, with Louphou Coulibaly, Latest draft: July 2025
Revised and Resubmitted, Review of Economic Studies
Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates, with Saki Bigio and Charles Engel. March 2025
Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies
Financial Integration and Monetary Policy Coordination, with Louphou Coulibaly, June 2024 [Slides] [Non-technical summary]
Revised and Resubmit, Journal of Political Economy
A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation, with Fernando Arce and Julien Bengui
Revised and Resubmitted, AEJ Macro
Helicopter Drops and Liquidity Traps, with Manuel Amador, Updated May 2025 [Slides]
A Theory of Fear of Floating, with Louphou Coulibaly
Accepted, Journal of Monetary Economics
Portfolio Choice and Settlement Frictions: A Theory of Endogenous Convenience Yields, with Saki Bigio
Resubmitted, Journal of Economic Theory
Overborrowing, Financial Crises and Macro-prudential Policy, with Enrique Mendoza, June 2010
Work in Progress
International Equity Flows, Monetary Policy, and Time Consistency, with Alejandro Van der Ghote
Foreign Reserve Management, with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri
The Political Economy of Credit Booms and Macroprudential Regulation, with Cesar Sosa-Padilla and Carlos Bolivar
Financial Cooperation in a Fragmented World, with Sebastian Horn and Giovanni Rosso, and Cesar Sosa Padilla
Macroprudential Policy According to Hank, with Louphou Coulibaly and Xing Xu
Journal Articles
International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance, with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2025) [Journal link]
Economic Journal
Overborrowing, Underborrowing and Macroprudential Policy, with Fernando Arce and Julien Bengui (2025) [Journal link]
Journal of Economic Theory
Bank Runs, Fragility, and Credit Easing, with Manuel Amador (2024) [Sildes] [Twitter thread] [Journal link]
American Economic Review, 2024
Previous results in "Partial Bank Runs and Optimal Default"
On Wars, Sanctions and Sovereign Default, with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2023) [Twitter thread] [Journal link]
Journal of Monetary Economics, Carnegie-Rochester-NYU 100th Conference on Public Policy
Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk, with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2023) [Journal link]
Review of Economic Studies [Twitter thread]
The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions, with Cesar Sosa-Padilla (2023)
AEA Papers and Proceedings
Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk, with Pablo Ottonello and Ignacio Presno (2023) [Journal link]
Journal of Political Economy
Macroprudential Policy with Leakages, with Julien Bengui (2022) [Journal link]
Journal of International Economics
The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves, with Guido Lorenzoni (2022) [Slides] [Jounal link]
V Handbook of International Economics
Banks, Liquidity Management and Monetary Policy, with Saki Bigio (2022) [Journal link]
Econometrica
Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises, with Jorge Mondragon (2022) [Slides] [Journal link]
Quarterly Journal of Economics
The Region summary
A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature, with Enrique Mendoza,
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2020 Special issue on The 25th anniversary of Frontiers of Business Cycle Research
Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound, with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri [Journal link]
Review of Economic Studies, 2020 (Featured Article) Older working paper
Financial Safety Nets, with Julien Bengui and Louphou Coulibaly
International Economic Review, 2019
The Region summary
International Reserves and Rollover Risk, with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
American Economic Review, 2018
Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy, with Enrique Mendoza
Journal of Political Economy, 2018
Efficient Bailouts?
American Economic Review, 2016 (Lead Article)
The Region summary
Reverse Speculative Attacks, with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri
Journal of Economics, Dynamics and Control, 2016
The Region summary [Code]
Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity and Macroprudential Policy, with Chenxin Liu and Enrique Mendoza
Journal of International Economics, 2016 [Corrigendum] [Code]
Macro-prudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation, with Emine Boz and Enrique Mendoza
IMF Economic Review, 2012
Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
American Economic Review, 2011 [Appendix] [Matlab Code]
Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 2010
International Economic Review, 2019
The Region summary
International Reserves and Rollover Risk, with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
American Economic Review, 2018
Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy, with Enrique Mendoza
Journal of Political Economy, 2018
Efficient Bailouts?
American Economic Review, 2016 (Lead Article)
The Region summary
Reverse Speculative Attacks, with Manuel Amador, Luigi Bocola, and Fabrizio Perri
Journal of Economics, Dynamics and Control, 2016
The Region summary [Code]
Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity and Macroprudential Policy, with Chenxin Liu and Enrique Mendoza
Journal of International Economics, 2016 [Corrigendum] [Code]
Macro-prudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation, with Emine Boz and Enrique Mendoza
IMF Economic Review, 2012
Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle
American Economic Review, 2011 [Appendix] [Matlab Code]
Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 2010
Published discussions
Comment on ``A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation,'' by Chris Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger
Proceedings of BIS annual conference
Comment on `Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances', by Alessandra Fogli and Fabrizio Perri
Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2015
Comment on 'The Risk Channel of Monetary Policy', by Oliver de Groot
International Journal of Central Banking, June 2014
Comment on `Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate', by Olivier Jeanne
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, August 2012
Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2015
Comment on 'The Risk Channel of Monetary Policy', by Oliver de Groot
International Journal of Central Banking, June 2014
Comment on `Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate', by Olivier Jeanne
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, August 2012
Other Writings:
Understanding the Russian Debt Default Dilemma , Minneapolis Fed, March 2022
The economic models come to Moscow, Minneapolis Fed, March 2022
Interview with Study Center Gerzensee, September 2021
Spanish:
Austerity vs. Stimulus Dilemma, Economia y Mercado, October 2021
Rollover Crises, Economia y Mercado, January 2019
International Reserves, Economia y Mercado, August 2012